How To Handle Stock Market Highs


If you follow investing much, 你最近可能听说过一些关于美国股市达到历史高点的说法. This is true; as I write this the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently crossed the 20,000 mark for the first time ever, along with new high marks for the S&标准普尔500指数、纳斯达克指数以及其他各种衡量市场表现的美国股票指数. This seems like a good thing, 可能是为了那些最近投资了美国股市的人,他们看到了不错的增长. 然而,伴随着这些创纪录的高点,也伴随着大量的怀疑和恐惧. Are stocks too expensive? Are we due for a correction or market decline? Should I get out while the getting’s good?

The truth is (and you will hear us say this often), no one knows exactly where the stock market is headed. 我们所能做的就是试着多了解一点历史上最高的股票市场,以便做出明智的决定,而不是下意识的反应.

2017年1月,Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA)的一项研究调查了S&P 500 going back 90 years. 他们关注的是指数收于历史高点的几个月, 以及之后12个月的表现. 他们还将这一数据与整个90年的数据集中的所有12个月期间进行了比较. DFA found that when the S&500点创出历史新高,随后12个月显示80点正回报.5% of the time. Generally speaking, 在市场创下历史新高后,因预期下跌而套现将是一个糟糕的决定,80.5% of the time.

更重要的是,在这项研究中,所有12个月的周期都显示了正回报74.7% of the time. 实际上,你在随机的12个月期间找到正回报的可能性比在历史高点之后的12个月期间找到正回报的可能性要小一些. 没有证据表明,历史高点预示着短期内的负回报.



DFA的研究还发现了一个有趣的事实:在这90年里,几乎有30%的月份的收盘价都创下了历史新高. That’s a lot of records broken! 然而,当观察股市的视觉表现时,这是有意义的. In the graph below, 你可以看到市场两部分的表现:大股票和小股票(这里显示的是与债券的对比), treasury bills, and inflation). Despite short-term fluctuations, 从长期来看,股票市场一直在稳步上升, 这意味着,随着它的不断上升,它将不断创下新高.



As you can see, 仅仅因为股市达到了前所未有的水平就退出股市,从历史上看并不是一个伟大的决定. Plus, with the market is consistently hitting new highs, that would mean a lot of buying and selling and worrying. 那么,当市场达到新的高度时,我们能做些什么来适应呢? By having a solid investment plan that you trust, and periodically rebalancing the investments within it.

我们的每个客户都有一个指导投资管理的“目标配置”. These targets are based on the client’s risk tolerance, current needs, future goals, historical investment data, and more. For simplicity’s sake, 让我们使用一个例子,在这个例子中,客户有一个50%的股票和50%的债券的目标配置. When certain types of investments grow more than others, such as stocks have recently, they become a bigger and bigger part of the allocation. 一开始50%的股票可能很快就会变成55%的股票,然后是60%的股票,以此类推. While it is nice to see things grow, 这也意味着客户端离原来的目标越来越远. 这可能会导致不必要的风险和与客户的总体目标不一致的投资组合.

This is where rebalancing comes in. We set “tolerance bands” around each investment category. 前面的例子可能对股票和债券使用10%的容忍范围. 这意味着我们不希望任何东西超过或低于目标的10%. 我们有软件跟踪这些百分比,并在发生这种情况时自动提醒我们, 届时,我们将把投资转向最初的目标.

This accomplishes a few things. 我们正在系统地做许多人都担心的事情:在某些投资急剧增加后,降低它们的水平(反之亦然)。.  The basis of the decision, however, is not the market movement itself; it is your overall financial plan that directs what the investment mix should be. 这使我们能够以一种有组织的方式做出决定,而不是对市场做出下意识的反应. Your original plan was developed to suit your goals and needs; rebalancing ensures it continues to do so.

如果你考虑了所有这些事情,仍然对你的投资状况感到不舒服, perhaps it is time to consult with your financial planner. 不过,仅仅是市场创下新高可能还不足以成为抛售股票的理由, any changes in your risk tolerance or goals could be.

Thanks for reading!


Charts courtesy of Dimensional Fund Advisors


About the Author: BoldThink